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16 Mar 2020
China: Macroeconomic data plunges – NAB
Surveys ahead of today’s data anticipated declines in the key measures but failed to predict the extent of the plunges in industrial production, investment and retail sales, Gerard Burg from National Australia Bank reports.
Key quotes
“China’s industrial production plunged in the first two months of the year – down by 13.5% YoY.”
“China’s fixed asset investment contracted sharply in the first two months of 2020 – down by 24.5% YoY.”
“China recorded a trade deficit in the first two months of 2020, as exports plunged amid the extended Coronavirus shutdown. The deficit totalled US$7.1 billion, compared with a surplus of US$46.8 billion in December 2019.”
“China’s retail sales fell rapidly in the first two months of 2020 – down by 20.5% YoY.”
“We revised down our forecast for China’s annual growth to 4.8% in 2020 (previously 5.4%). The resumption of normal activity should provide a boost to annual growth in 2021 – forecast at 6.1% (up from 5.8% previously).”