NZ elections: No party looks set to secure an outright majority – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that based on the latest opinion polls for the forthcoming New Zealand elections which are due on 23 September, no party looks set to secure an outright majority on election night, but this is not unusual for New Zealand.

Key Quotes

“Indeed it has been the outcome of every election since New Zealand adopted the Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMP) electoral system in 1996. The return of a National–led Government would see a continuation of the status quo. A Labour-led government may seek to introduce something akin to a Fed-style 'dual mandate' for the RBNZ by giving the Bank an explicit role for pursuing full employment, although it is unclear what, if any, impact this may have on the Bank's current policy stance.”

“More materially, a Labour-led government may also seek to curb immigration and clamp down on speculative residential property investment. If as we expect an outcome is not clear on election night, it could be a period of weeks before the composition of the new Government is known, with the balance of power likely to be held by the New Zealand First Party and, to a lesser extent, the Maori Party.”