AUD/USD off lows, but weak ahead of RBA

AUD/USD has recovered from the session low of 0.7635, but remains on the back foot near 0.7650 ahead of the RBA rate decision. 

Trapped between 1-hr 50-MA & 200-MA

The spot looks trapped between 0.7658 (1-hr 50-MA) and 0.7637 (1-hr 100-MA). The RBA is expected to keep key policy tools unchanged; however, traders are interested to see if the central bank is worried about the recent rally in the AUD and the drop in the fourth quarter CPI. 

There is consensus in the market that the bank is likely to stay on hold throughout 2017. Meanwhile, money markets are pricing-in a less than 15% chance of a rate hike. 

AUD/USD Technical Levels

A break below 0.7637 (1-hr 100-MA) would expose 0.76 (zero figure) under which the losses could be extended to 0.7511 (Jan 27 low). On the other hand, a break above 0.7658 (1-hr 50-MA) could yield a rally to 0.77 (zero figure) and to 0.7732 (Sep 8 high).