Canada: Likely to post 12K gain in employment in July – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, are forecasting a 12K gain in Canada’s employment in July after it was little changed in June.

Key Quotes

“We expect a modest reversal in July of earlier weakness in Alberta employment (May down 24K) due to knock-on effects of shutdowns at oil sands facilities that have since come back online. July can be a volatile month for the education sector related to changing patterns for teacher hirings/layoffs, although the sign is unclear and we are forecasting no change for this category (-10K overall for services after a 46K gain in June). We expect some reversal of recent construction and manufacturing weakness to give an overall goods sector gain of 22K gain (-46K in June). We see the unemployment rate ticking up to 6.9%, as the fall in the labour force during the past three months should see a partial reversal.”