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Noticias de trading
24 Apr 2015
When will the Greeks run out of money? – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - European Economists at Nomura, estimate the amount of funds available as on now with the Greeks using their debt servicing needs, state’s cash primary balance estimates and the state cash deposits.
Key Quotes
“If the state only had access to its main bank account at the Bank of Greece then this account would have long been depleted. However, the state is sourcing additional liquidity from general government entities that either transfer money directly to it or do reverse repos (through the “Common Fund”) to the debt management agency. Some of the intra-governmental borrowing is explicit repos that are reported by the Ministry of Finance.”
“However, another material usage of the Common Fund has been its increased participation in the recent T-bill auctions to rollover foreign holdings, probably to the tune of EUR3-4bn.”
“All in all as of February 2015, government deposits were EUR14.9bn while inter-governmental borrowing through repos was EUR8.7bn. At this point, there is not much transparency in available data to know how many resources are still available for the state to borrow from other entities internally. Simplistically we could subtract the two values to get a figure of another EUR6bn available for intra-governmental borrowing. However the actual figure should be materially less.”
“First, some of reported entities lie outside the perimeter of the state and the legal options available to seize their deposits are limited apart from moral suasion. Second, there is limited information on the level of consolidations in this data and there could be some double counting (e.g. some deposits reported in state banks have already been repo’d). The available remaining additional liquidity could actually be closer to EUR3bn, in line with recent statements by Budget Minister D. Mardas.”
“Financing needs for May are another EUR1.5bn (assuming budget execution is as planned), while the intra-day financing gap at the end of month is also likely to reappear in May. Therefore, we doubt that Greece will be able to pay the end-May ~EUR2bn in wages and pensions without further mobilisation of internal resources.”
“Additionally, June is yet another challenging month with sizeable redemptions to the IMF, totalling EUR1.6bn between 5 and 19 June, signalling the end of the road for the Greek government’s attrition tactics.”
Key Quotes
“If the state only had access to its main bank account at the Bank of Greece then this account would have long been depleted. However, the state is sourcing additional liquidity from general government entities that either transfer money directly to it or do reverse repos (through the “Common Fund”) to the debt management agency. Some of the intra-governmental borrowing is explicit repos that are reported by the Ministry of Finance.”
“However, another material usage of the Common Fund has been its increased participation in the recent T-bill auctions to rollover foreign holdings, probably to the tune of EUR3-4bn.”
“All in all as of February 2015, government deposits were EUR14.9bn while inter-governmental borrowing through repos was EUR8.7bn. At this point, there is not much transparency in available data to know how many resources are still available for the state to borrow from other entities internally. Simplistically we could subtract the two values to get a figure of another EUR6bn available for intra-governmental borrowing. However the actual figure should be materially less.”
“First, some of reported entities lie outside the perimeter of the state and the legal options available to seize their deposits are limited apart from moral suasion. Second, there is limited information on the level of consolidations in this data and there could be some double counting (e.g. some deposits reported in state banks have already been repo’d). The available remaining additional liquidity could actually be closer to EUR3bn, in line with recent statements by Budget Minister D. Mardas.”
“Financing needs for May are another EUR1.5bn (assuming budget execution is as planned), while the intra-day financing gap at the end of month is also likely to reappear in May. Therefore, we doubt that Greece will be able to pay the end-May ~EUR2bn in wages and pensions without further mobilisation of internal resources.”
“Additionally, June is yet another challenging month with sizeable redemptions to the IMF, totalling EUR1.6bn between 5 and 19 June, signalling the end of the road for the Greek government’s attrition tactics.”