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Weaker Eurozone PMIs suggest GDP growth peaked in Q1 – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the Eurozone PMI releases, Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes that Eurozone GDP growth peaked in Q1, but the 1.6% 2015 growth forecast still stands.
Key Quotes
“Euro area PMIs declined in April after having trended higher since end-2014. The manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 from 52.2 in March (consensus 52.6) and the services PMI declined to 53.7 from 54.2 in March (consensus 54.5).”
“The small declines in the PMIs suggest that GDP growth peaked in Q1, supported by the decline in the oil price, and better consumer and business confidence on the back of the ECB's QE programme.”
“The lower PMIs do not change our view that GDP will grow 1.6% this year, which is above consensus of 1.4%. GDP growth should still be reasonable in Q2, with the weaker quarterly growth due mainly to a peak in growth in private consumption in Q1, which is also suggested by the small decline in consumer confidence in April.”
