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FXStreet (Barcelona) - Brian Mangwiro, Strategist at RBS, highlights the two key short-term risks for the EUR – positioning and Fed rate lift-off risks.
Key Quotes
“Positioning. CFTC data shows speculators are close to record shorts on EUR. At the disaggregated level, Leveraged and Asset Managers are close to record shorts and Dealers are record longs.”
“Extreme positioning makes for short term squeeze risks.”
“Fed delays lift-off risks: Our US trading desk economics team expect the first Fed tightening in Sep’15. But that is already 75% priced-in.”
“Also, Euribor futures are implying ECB keeping the refi rate at zero into Q1’17 (bottom right). We expect this to remain as long as the ECB keeps rate settings unchanged and continues with QE.”
“So, if you expect the Fed to lift-off sometime over the next several months, then you add to your EUR/USD shorts on rallies. ECB QE plus interest rate differentials are on your side.”
