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16 Apr 2015
Australia's upbeat jobs data unlikely to last - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - While the Australian job figures were solid, job growth is unlikely to be maintained, according to Daniel Martin, Senior Asia Economist at Capital Economics.
Key Quotes
"Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow during the rest of the year, we still expect the unemployment rate to rise to 7.0% by the end of 2015."
"The March gain in employment was stronger than recent survey data had suggested and well above expectations (the Bloomberg median and our own forecast were both 15,000). The increase in February was also revised up, from 15,600 to 42,000. Australia's employment series is very volatile, but over the last three months employment has now risen by an average of 24,300 per month, which is comfortably above the 16,000 average for the last decade. The unemployment rate is now down to 6.1%, from 6.2% in February and 6.3% in January."
"For now then, the labour market appears to be going through a good spell. However, this is unlikely to be sustained. At the moment the economy is benefitting from a one-time boost to spending power from the lower petrol prices, but that will soon start to fade. Moreover, the effects of lower prices for Australia's commodity exports are yet to feed through the economy, while mining investment still has much further to fall."
"The upshot is that GDP and employment growth should slow later this year, and unemployment will rise much more sharply than most analysts are currently forecasting."
Key Quotes
"Australian employment rose by 37,700 in March, adding to signs that the economy has made a reasonably healthy start to the year. However, we doubt this will last for long. With GDP growth set to slow during the rest of the year, we still expect the unemployment rate to rise to 7.0% by the end of 2015."
"The March gain in employment was stronger than recent survey data had suggested and well above expectations (the Bloomberg median and our own forecast were both 15,000). The increase in February was also revised up, from 15,600 to 42,000. Australia's employment series is very volatile, but over the last three months employment has now risen by an average of 24,300 per month, which is comfortably above the 16,000 average for the last decade. The unemployment rate is now down to 6.1%, from 6.2% in February and 6.3% in January."
"For now then, the labour market appears to be going through a good spell. However, this is unlikely to be sustained. At the moment the economy is benefitting from a one-time boost to spending power from the lower petrol prices, but that will soon start to fade. Moreover, the effects of lower prices for Australia's commodity exports are yet to feed through the economy, while mining investment still has much further to fall."
"The upshot is that GDP and employment growth should slow later this year, and unemployment will rise much more sharply than most analysts are currently forecasting."