Gold reclaims $4,000 as US Dollar retreats; focus turns to Fed speakers

• Gold reclaims the $4,000 mark as the US Dollar retreats from five-month highs.
• Investors stay cautious amid the prolonged US shutdown, supporting safe-haven assets.
• Focus shifts to remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials later in the day for fresh insights into monetary policy.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Thursday, reclaiming the key $4,000 psychological mark as the US Dollar (USD) softens. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,016, extending gains for the second consecutive day, up nearly 0.80%.

The ongoing United States (US) government shutdown is keeping markets on edge, prompting mild safe-haven demand for Gold. The political deadlock is raising concerns over the potential economic fallout and weighing on the Greenback after a strong multi-day rally.

Despite the recovery, Bullion’s upside appears limited in the near term as both macro and technical factors could cap further advances. Stronger-than-expected readings from the ADP Employment Change report and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may hold off from cutting rates in December.

At the same time, improved market sentiment, reflected in firmer global equities after recent weakness, is discouraging investors from making large bets on Gold. However, the broader outlook remains constructive amid persistent geopolitical and economic risks.

Market movers: US Dollar eases with focus on shutdown, tariffs and Fed commentary

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.99, retreating slightly after briefly climbing to a five-month high of 100.36 on Wednesday.
• The US government shutdown has become the longest in history, surpassing the previous record of 35 days. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump urged Republicans to do whatever it takes to reopen the government, including considering the abolition of the Senate filibuster.
• The US Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday over the legality of President Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The hearing drew intense scrutiny as several justices, including members of the conservative bloc, questioned whether the 1977 law grants the president authority to impose broad trade measures without congressional approval.
• The World Gold Council’s (WGC) US Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025 report, published on November 5, showed that US gold demand surged 58% YoY to 186 tonnes, driven by record inflows into gold-backed ETFs. US-listed funds added 137 tonnes in Q3, accounting for 62% of global inflows. Trading volumes on COMEX and US ETFs also jumped to a record $208 billion per day in October as Gold notched multiple new highs.
• Separately, the WGC’s Central Bank Gold Statistics report, released on November 4, revealed that central banks recorded net purchases of 39 tonnes in September, marking the strongest monthly total of the year. Brazil led the buying with 15 tonnes, followed by Kazakhstan and Guatemala, lifting year-to-date net buying to 200 tonnes.
• The US calendar is light, with no major economic releases scheduled. Attention will turn to the Challenger Job Cuts report and remarks from a slew of Fed officials later in the day for fresh monetary policy cues.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD steadies above $4,000, eyes key $4,050 resistance

XAU/USD is edging modestly higher within a familiar range, as bulls attempt to reclaim near-term control. The metal has climbed above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

However, despite the bounce, bulls face a tough test at the $4,020-$4,050 resistance zone, which has capped every upside attempt in recent sessions. A clear breakout above this barrier could trigger follow-through buying toward the $4,100-$4,150 region.

On the downside, the 50-SMA at $3,985 now serves as immediate support. A sustained move below it may invite fresh selling pressure, exposing the $3,900 floor, where repeated dip-buying has previously kept bears in check.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered above the 50 midpoint, suggesting improving bullish momentum but still short of signaling a decisive breakout.