EUR: Much ado about CPI – ING

There seems to be quite a lot of focus on the August eurozone CPI release today. Consensus expects headline to tick up to 2.1% YoY and core to tick down to 2.2% YoY, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD is likely to continue trading between 1.1650 and 1.1750

"The ECB hawks and doves seem evenly split, where the former group sees no need for rates to be taken sub-neutral (2.00%), while the latter is still concerned about undershooting inflation targets."

"We actually doubt how much today's data will impact the pricing of the ECB's monetary cycle, where the market still prices a cut for the second quarter of next year. That seems strange, because next year we expect the effects of German fiscal stimulus to be felt, and if there is a window for a further ECB rate cut, we see it this year, not next."

"EUR/USD looks quite comfortable at 1.1700 for the time being. Long positioning is probably the biggest risk to EUR/USD right now. But in theory, US jobs releases this week still have the potential to unlock some upside. EUR/USD looks likely to continue trading well within the 1.1650-1.1750 range for now."