USD: Data tests before tariffs – ING

The currency market caught up with the tariff threat at the start of this week, with the dollar stronger across the board, the yen supported, and high-beta currencies under pressure. Again, the big underperformers have been AUD and NZD, likely on the view that China will remain a big focus of US protectionism, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.

DXY can move above 104.50 before the big announcement

"Despite yesterday’s moves, the dollar has plenty of room to rally should tomorrow’s tariff announcement surprise on the hawkish (risk-negative) side, but remains at risk of data-led downside pressure."

"The US macro calendar will have a big say on today’s FX moves, but if we don’t see any data surprise we would not fight the dollar’s tentative recovery, as the latest comments from the US administration are quelling hopes for a lenient tariff announcement tomorrow. We could see DXY move above 104.50 before tomorrow’s big announcement."

"JOLTS job openings for February are expected to show a moderate decline to 7.6 million today, with some focus also on the layoff figures. The ISM manufacturing index for March is expected to drop back below 50.0, mirroring the deterioration in sentiment in the sector given tariff uncertainty."