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3 Sep 2014
UK current account deficit data revisions – RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS noted that existing data show the largest deficit for a quarter of a century for the UK with the UK statistics office that has published revised/indicative Balance of Payments data which show significantly larger current account deficits in 2008 and 2009.
Key Quotes:
“The deterioration stems from the investment income balance, which now shows the UK's traditional surplus being eliminated earlier, in 2008 rather than 2012”.
“Whilst the largest deterioration seems likely to remain at the time of the nadir of the financial crisis, there is a clear risk that the revisions result in even larger current account deficits after 2009 (existing data show the largest deficit for a quarter of a century), inducing downside risks for sterling”.
Key Quotes:
“The deterioration stems from the investment income balance, which now shows the UK's traditional surplus being eliminated earlier, in 2008 rather than 2012”.
“Whilst the largest deterioration seems likely to remain at the time of the nadir of the financial crisis, there is a clear risk that the revisions result in even larger current account deficits after 2009 (existing data show the largest deficit for a quarter of a century), inducing downside risks for sterling”.